Estimating the Number of Dead Americans by June 2, 2020
Local & National News | March 21, 2020
Approximately 3.5 million Americans will die by June 2, 2020 if the spread of the Novelcoronavirus goes unchecked.

Here’s how I arrived at this number:

  • The doubling time for coronavirus is about 5 days.
  • As of March 19, 2020 there were about 10,000 confirmed cases in the United States.
  • The mortality rate for Covid-19 is likely to be around 1%. If it’s 2%, then the number of Americans who die by June 2, 2020 will double from 3.5 million to 7 million.
  • This also assumes that zero intervention is put into place to stop the spread.

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