Here’s how I arrived at this number:
- The doubling time for coronavirus is about 5 days.
- As of March 19, 2020 there were about 10,000 confirmed cases in the United States.
- The mortality rate for Covid-19 is likely to be around 1%. If it’s 2%, then the number of Americans who die by June 2, 2020 will double from 3.5 million to 7 million.
- This also assumes that zero intervention is put into place to stop the spread.